Malaysia's rice market has remained heavily import dependent as the Self-Sufficiency Level (SSL) continues to decline leading to heavy fiscal burden on the country. The national policy objective targeted at achieving 75% rice SSL by 2030 may not be feasible given Malaysia's current SSL trajectory. The domestic production is faced with structural challenges that limits supply. These structural challenges include stagnation in productivity, area expansion, irrigated area, and unfavourable climate. These challenges do not occur in isolation, but as multiple interconnected factors that affects the entire rice value chain. Climate change among other factors have continued to undermine domestic supply, leading to increased price volatility, declining paddy yield, and consequent decline in global supply.

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Keywords: climate change, forecasting and self-sufficiency